Maine voters decisively rejected same-sex marriage yesterday, 53% to 47%. Last November, when California voters overturned gay marriage there, the exit polls indicated that out of the Obama constituencies, overwhelming opposition from African-American (and, to a lesser extent, Hispanic) voters helped tip the balance. This was controversial, to put it mildly. Well, Maine is 97% white, and Obama won it in a landslide, 58%-42%.
Something else I hadn't realized: the Christie win in New Jersey means the gay marriage bill expected to have come out of the legislature soon is now dead.
Fear wins again.
Crap.
Anyone know if the "vote no" Campaign in Maine was as incompetently run as the one in California?
Posted by: Matthew G. Saroff | November 04, 2009 at 04:18 PM
Just the opposite. My impression was that the No on 1 people had absorbed the lessons of the Prop. 8 campaign and had foregrounded real gay and lesbian couples in Maine. I think the whole explanation is that the median age of Maine is 5 years greater than that of California, that is, lots of older folks in Maine.
Posted by: Mithras | November 04, 2009 at 06:02 PM
Someone did an analysis of the support v/ age groups, and concluded that in 10 years or so, this will flip, as the old bigots die off, and are replaced by a younger cohort who grew up with gay friends....Except for Utah, which is going the other way.
Posted by: Matthew G. Saroff | November 04, 2009 at 08:27 PM
I blame all the losses on the loss of Howard Dean and the 50-state strategy. The on-the-ground nationwide organizing has disappeared, and Democratic turnout everywhere was dismal.
Posted by: Joyful Alternative | November 06, 2009 at 01:09 AM
I wouldn't overthink this loss. Yes, Maine is overhwelmingly white and elderly. It is also among the least religious states in the nation and notably "centrist" on certain (mostly environmental) issues. However, we are not terribly daring, and there is a big ideological divide between the inland rural north and coastal urban south. In the weeks leading up to election day, the No side had a small, soft lead in the polls, with undecideds at around 4%. That shifted in the final days, driven the Yes side's huge advertising blitz, which focused on a single message: militant gays will come into your schools and brainwash your kids into the gay lifestyle, complete with sinister music and phony quotes. Same tactic they used in CA (same campaign manager, too). There's nothing like in-your-face sexual hysteria to send the average middle-aged rural Mainer running for the lobster crackers...
Posted by: zippy | November 06, 2009 at 05:46 AM
zippy, are you saying rural Maine is conservative not in the social sense but is just unwilling to be innovative?
Posted by: Mithras | November 06, 2009 at 10:58 AM
zippy, are you saying rural Maine is conservative not in the social sense but is just unwilling to be innovative?
Yes, exactly. They're good people up north, but an issue like gay marriage is still way outside their comfort zone. I really believe we lost this thing in the final days because of the Yes (anti-gay) side's last minute TV ad blitz. Our ads were all about fairness. Their ads were all about sodomized children. In rural Maine it was no contest.
Posted by: zippy | November 06, 2009 at 05:47 PM