Via Kos, CNN says that McCain has given up on Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa. Their new, cunning plan is to win Pennsylvania.
Okay, let's review.
John Kerry won this state by 144,428 votes in 2004. Four years later, the Democratic voter-registration advantage has grown to 1.2 million statewide, 614,000 higher than 2004. Turnout in 2004 was around 60%. Turnout statewide is going to be much higher this time around - especially among all those new voters who got to participate in the Democratic primary.
There are 4.4 million Dems, 3.2 million Republicans, and 1.1 million other party members or independents. That is, if McCain got 100% of the independent vote in Pennsylvania, he'd still lose.
And it's Obama who is winning the independents. So, where is McCain going to get the votes?
Of that increase in Democratic advantage of 614,000 voters, more than half - 317,708 - is in Philadelphia and the surrounding suburban counties of Bucks, Montgomery, Delaware and Chester. Kerry won all of those counties except Chester. They're all bluer now. Where is McCain going to get the votes?
Where the increase is centered - Philly - means these new Dems are disproportionately black, and I can guarantee you - black voters are going to shatter turnout records this year. In 2004, nationwide only 69% of adult black citizens were registered, and of them, only 87% voted (pdf). This time around, I will not be surprised if there are stories of people demanding to be taken to the polls from their deathbeds, and being accommodated. Where is McCain going to get the votes?
In 2004, Bush won 16% of Pennsylvania African-American voters. How many will McCain win? One percent? Five percent? If he's lucky.
In 2004, John Kerry won this state narrowly by getting a 412,106 vote margin out of Philadelphia. Out of the statewide registration advantage of 1.2 million, Philadelphia alone accounts for almost 60%, about 715,225. This is a machine town. Mayor Nutter is on board. Congressman Brady is on board. John Dougherty is on board. The machine is revved up to elect Obama. Where is McCain going to get the votes?
Even if the machine didn't exist, the Obama campaign has a huge campaign office advantage in metro Philly. We have way, way more local volunteers. We have a staggering number of volunteers from New York and New Jersey who are poised to vote first thing in the morning on election day, then race down here to help out. Oh, and we have a huge advertising war chest advantage, which you can directly experience by comparing the ratio of Obama ads to McCain ads.
No one seems to understand the McCain strategy, least of all the McCain campaign:
Tony Fabrizio, the pollster for 1996 Republican nominee Bob Dole [says:]
“Look, I’ve been in their position. I know what it’s like when the world comes crashing down around you in a presidential race,” Fabrizio continued. “I used to have a saying in 1996 that is absolutely applicable to these guys in 2008: Denial is not a river in Africa."
But, he noted, “on what planet do you not adjust to protect the states that you absolutely need to win to get to 270?” ...
“It [McCain staying in Iowa - this was Thursday] does not make much sense to me,” said J. Ann Selzer, who conducts the Des Moines Register's poll. “When we saw what the poll numbers were [in Iowa], we thought it’s no longer a tossup state. And no one thinks it is, except the McCain campaign. It just feels, to me, undisciplined.”
It is undisciplined. In military terms, it's called "retreating in disarray."
Fabrizio urges McCain to move resources out of Pennsylvania now in order to protect the “must wins” and focus on the more competitive swing states.
“I don’t know how you pour so much money in Pennsylvania,” he said. “My guess is you can buy Nevada and Colorado for about the same amount you can buy Pennsylvania.”
A Republican familiar with McCain’s internal polling contends the campaign’s positioning in Iowa, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin is “much better” than public surveys indicate.
That was Thursday. Today, they're out of Iowa. I guess it wasn't that "much better" there.
I predict that next week it will be some other state where the last, panicky attack is supposedly to be mounted. Stay tuned! The McCain changes every hour - until November 5th.
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