Fables of the reconstruction

Republicans Just Need New Shoes, Maybe a Scarf

I think this is excellent strategic thinking:

[Republican National Committee Deputy Chairman] Frank Donatelli: Sometimes the generic brand does it for Republicans or Democrats, based on the circumstances. But this time it's a very challenging environment and it's not enough just to kind of go down the litany of issues. I think you've got to be more creative. You've got to reach out. You've got to have some really strong issues, talking points of your own.

So, you know, it's kind of like we're a basic black dress. Sometimes it works. But sometimes you've gotta, you know, you’ve gotta have the accessories to go with it. And we need accessories this time.

CBSNews.com:  This is the year to accessorize for Republicans.

Frank Donatelli:  First time I've ever talked about shoes in an interview like this.

That's right, the fundamentals of the Republican brand are sound. And popular. Popular and sound. Keep repeating that, at least until November.

It Gets Confusing

John McCain has lived through so much history that he's forgotten most of it.

Also, I look forward to the Republican candidate for President making other easily falsifiable statements of fact.

"Why Should Iraqis Be the Only Ones Who Benefit From All This?"

New get your war on:

(Via Michele Grant.)

McCain Adrift

I guess better late than never:

After a series of disclosures forced the resignation of two McCain campaign aides with ties to unsavory regimes, the campaign has decided to scrutinize the background of the entire staff to ferret out connections to lobbyists.

This morning, according to two Republicans with direct knowledge, Rick Davis, the campaign manager, e-mailed to McCain's entire staff a memo entitled "McCain Campaign Conflicts Policy" -- Effective Today" that includes a questionnaire asking about previous professional activities.

They also warned people that if they lied, they would be fired. I guess when your party is made up of nothing but liars, you have to be clear on when it's not acceptable.

The Politico reported this evening that Craig Shirley, an outside, unpaid campaign adviser, will no longer advise McCain because he also works for an anti-Obama 527 organization.

That's at least the appearance of illegal coordination. Rookie mistake.

I especially like this part:

In the wake of last weekend's disclosure that McCain's convention CEO and one of his regional campaign managers lobbied for the Myanmar Junta in 2003, McCain promised to reporters that he would better vet his campaign staff.

But sympathetic critics -- including some within the campaign -- worry that the damage to McCain's brand has already set in, and have, for months, urged senior campaign officials to screen their staff.

So let's sum up: Warnings unheeded for months. Beginner's errors. Basic vetting not done. Senior staff have to caution against lying.

I have a new theory. This is the campaign of a man who believes he is fated to lose. McCain never expected himself to be the nominee, and his entire campaign staff does not expect him to win the election. They're just padding the resumes, going through the motions.  But now that the general election is about to start, people are pleading with them to get their shit together and not make themselves and the rest of the party look more like fools.

Dressed-Up Cars in Philly

The "Walden" station wagon in the local Wal-Mart parking lot:

Click the second pic for a larger version.

A gargoyle on a Chevy van near Passyunk and Fitzwater:

Creepy Yet Fantastic

He's right, don't ask, just click.

Democrats for McCain

Get on the idiot train before it's too late.

“At the Moment of Orgasm, Women Do Not Have Any Emotional Feelings.”

Science says so.

California Supreme Court Holds Same-Sex Marriage Ban Unconstitutional

In a 4-3 decision, the court held that allowing only opposite-sex couples to marry unjustly denies gay and lesbian people a fundamental right. The court's ruling goes into effect in 30 days. Opponents have prepared a referendum that will be on the ballot in November amending the California constitution to overturn the ruling. They are also asking the court to stay its ruling until then.

"...(R)etaining the designation of marriage exclusively for opposite sex couples and providing only a separate and distinct designation for same-sex couples may well have the effect of perpetuating a more general premise - now emphatically rejected by this state - that gay individuals and same-sex couples are in some respects "second-class citizens" who may, under the law, be treated differently from, and less favorably than, heterosexual individuals or opposite-sex couples," the opinion authored by Chief Justice Ronald M. George said.

"Under these circumstances, we cannot find that retention of the traditional definition of marriage constitutes a compelling state interest. Accordingly, we conclude that to the extent the current California statutory provisions limit marriage to opposite-sex couples, these statutes are unconstitutional."

"Separate and distinct designation" means "separate but equal".  Whether or not it's overturned by the referendum, this is the correct decision. (Of course, given this year's presidential race, it is likely that turnout will be so high that it will doom the referendum.) Pdf of the 172-page decision here.

Obama v. Bush

Bush, speaking to the Israeli Knesset:

Some seem to believe we should negotiate with terrorists and radicals, as if some ingenious argument will persuade them they have been wrong all along.

We have heard this foolish delusion before. As Nazi tanks crossed into Poland in 1939, an American senator declared: “Lord, if only I could have talked to Hitler, all of this might have been avoided.” We have an obligation to call this what it is – the false comfort of appeasement, which has been repeatedly discredited by history.

Some people suggest that if the United States would just break ties with Israel, all our problems in the Middle East would go away. This is a tired argument that buys into the propaganda of our enemies, and America rejects it utterly.

The Obama campaign decided it was an attack on their candidate and responded:

It is time to turn the page on eight years of policies that have strengthened Iran and failed to secure America or our ally Israel.

Aside from the merits, I am so happy to see George W. Bush out in front of the Republican party, leading the attacks against Obama and the Democrats on the issue of foreign policy. I hope he keeps it up for the next six months, and moves on to domestic issues, like the economy. disaster preparedness, and health care.

Remember, when you vote Republican, you're voting for the policies of George W. Bush.

Removing A Dent Using Dry Ice

I live in a city, so my car has dents in it. That's just the way it goes. A shopping cart rolled into it in a parking lot. A rock from a construction site bounced off it. I took it to a body shop and they wanted $1,000.

I've read about and seen video of people using dry ice to remove small dents, so I decided to give it a try. I went to the local dry ice vendor and bought a ten-pound block (the smallest they sell) for $10.

I worked the ice over the dents just like in the video, but bottom line: It didn't work for me. Maybe other people have success with it, or maybe it's bogus.

Pictures after the jump.

"Kill Whitey a Whole Bunch"

I love the way Baby Barack blinks.

(Via.)

The Next Internecine Battle

Ogged:

It'll be interesting to see how people react now that Obama has to appeal to general election voters. It's a pretty sure thing that he'll be talking a lot more about God, and he'll have to up the pander on Israel, if only to keep the manufactured outrage to a minimum. No doubt there'll be plenty of Democrats who'll remind us that they just knew he'd be a sell-out.

It's interesting. Most liberal political bloggers have always written in a period of general Democratic political defeat, with the exception of the 2006 midterms. Since all we were able to do was criticize what the Democrats were doing (or what the Republicans were doing to us), the ideas people advocated never actually got put to the test.

Now here we are with what appears to be a winning Presidential candidate, one who can inspire, attack and parry, and talk substance. And it's driving some people out of their minds. It's now apparent there are a whole lot of liberal bloggers who actually don't understand the first thing about how politics works but who were thought of as intelligent before because their theories never got tested. Now they have a successful candidate before them, and they're incensed he's not winning the way they want him to win, or that he's winning at all. At best, these people are just permanent gadflies. There's no way of predicting the stupid things they'll say if he actually manages to win the Presidency.

That Sound You Hear

It's the sound of anti-Obama bloggers' heads exploding. At the gym right now, so no link, but CNN says John Edwards will endorse Obama tonight.

The Slow Fade

Like the long lead time before the Pennsylvania primary, the long lead time before Hillary concedes that Obama has the nomination sewn up means that the actual event will be much less dramatic than anticipated.  For everyone other than those directly involved (or observers who pathologically over-identify with the participants), it will be an anticlimax. Without that emotional impact, I doubt that Obama will get much of a bounce from it in terms of his fundraising or his poll numbers against McCain. The only wild card is the amount of media coverage, which could be extensive if it's a slow news week, or minimal if there's a missing white woman.

Amusing Things to Think About While Waiting for Something to Happen

More people voted in Philadelphia county alone in the Presidential primary here than in all of West Virginia tonight.

Down in Cobb County, Georgia, there is a bar owner selling these shirts:

The bar owner is a stone racist, and an equal opportunity hater (one of his signs said "I wish OJ had married Hillary"). But so what? Let the moron have his little bit of fame, just like the rebel-flag-tattoo sporting cheesesteak slinger who loves the TV lights in Philly.

Just think! Only three more weeks of this before all the primaries are done.

Local Programming: Drinking Liberally Tonight

Come out to Drinking Liberally tonight, 6:00 PM until whenever, at the Tangier Bar, located at 18th and Lombard Sts. in Philadelphia. Follow the returns from West Virginia - I predict Clinton 65%, Obama 35%.  Drink specials and free wings for early birds, bring a friend! Bring an enemy! Bring cash, or don't - drinks are on that upyernoz guy, but after a couple he tries to get you to take him home. He's shameless.

"I Am a Lifelong Republican, And I'm Voting For Barack Obama"

MoveOn.org ran an ad contest. This is the winner:

Kick in to help them run it here.

(Via US News & World Report.)

Bumper Sticker Survey

From John Cole:

Went down to Delaware to take mom out for Mother's Day brunch. Driving back, over the 40 miles or so on I-95, I looked for presidential bumper stickers. My count: Obama 3, McCain and Hillary 0. Don't read too much into it, though. Being a Sunday, all of Hillary's and McCain's "regl'r folks" supporters were probably in church.

Welcome to Philly. Down on the Ground, Now!

The Smart Car: Not So Smart

So, Philly Carshare has a Smart Passion (it's $8.90 an hour), so I took it to the grocery store today:

Yeah, it's tiny. Check those wheels - crying out for rims, aren't they? Do they make rims that small?

More pics and my evaluation after the jump.

Why Is It Important?

Oliver Willis:

I simply cannot communicate with words to you how big a deal this is.

I can only use my own family as a barometer and like most normal people they rarely talk politics. Ever since Obama got in the race, and especially after Iowa, it constantly comes up. And this is from my grandparent’s generation, my mom’s and my own. I’m pretty sure the same thing is going on in black families from coast to coast now. John Kerry, Al Gore, Bill Clinton, were all great guys and black Americans were glad to vote for them (I sure voted for all three) but it just ain’t the same. To paraphrase an exchange I’ve had several times with a friend of mine (who is white):

Friend: Dude, can you imagine?
Me: I know.
Friend: The president’s name will be Barack Obama?
Me: I know.
Friend: And he’s black.
Me: I KNOW.

And then I get a crazed smile.

People talk about how this is an historic year, when the Democratic nominee will either be a black man or a woman, either of which will be the first in history (and likely the first to be President). I am sure something similar was going on in the minds of Hillary supporters when it looked like she had it all locked up, but being an Obama supporter working with African-American people in Philly a lot, it's their emotional reaction that I see the most.

That reaction is a sort of pleasant daze, tinged with a goodly amount of disbelief and sometimes fear that it's all a trick. It's not just the prospect of Obama being the nominee, I don't think. It's the realization sinking in that a good chunk of white people are on his side, and so to a certain extent on the side of all black Americans. I think the day-to-day reality for most black people is that whites predictably will support other white people. I could be reading too much into this, but whites enthusiastically supporting a black politician for President when a perfectly good white alternative was available is just a bit stunning.

Political Bloggers As Children

The More They Talk, The Better We Look

Oh, yes, please make these kinds of statements, Republican party:

For a sign of Florida Republicans' all-out effort to attract black voters, look no farther than the glossy full-colored The Black Republican magazine that launches broadsides like these:

The KKK was the ''terrorist arm of the Democratic Party.'' Democrats, in addition to waging ''war on God,'' are still mired in sex and financial scandals.

The Black Republican. I just have to chuckle. I hear in the 30s there was a publication called Bavarian Jewish National Socialist Monthly. In German, it's all one word, so it sounded better.

More seriously:

The publication comes out as Republicans, under Gov. [Charlie] Crist, have reached out to Hispanic and black voters. Crist and the GOP Legislature this year changed racially offensive lyrics in the state's song and also issued an apology for slavery on the state's behalf -- something Rice says the Democratic Party should do as well.

Crist was nicknamed Florida's first black governor because of his support for issues important to blacks. His 2006 Democratic opponent had once opposed compensating two wrongfully convicted black men, a fact that helped Crist garner about 18 percent of the black vote in Florida -- the highest of any Republican in recent history, according to exit polls. An estimated 90 percent of black Floridians traditionally vote Democratic.

I have to believe that, given the first African-American presidential nominee in history, that 90% is not going down. But it would be good for the party - if the Florida Democratic Party can get its shit together, that is - to counter this stuff.

If Republicans could get 25 percent of the black vote nationwide, according to [Frances] Rice's magazine, the party would win Congress and the White House.

Republicans are going to have to work to hold onto white people this year. Twenty-five percent of blacks? Forget it.

But to do that, Rice said, she wants black voters to know the Democrats' history of  "slavery, secession, segregation and socialism.'"

What's that, like queen high? I've got three of a kind: The Southern Strategy, the War on Drugs, and Katrina. I win!

Bringing up the sex scandal stuff seems a little demented, especially given Republican penchant for being huge self-hating closet cases who fuck other dudes in, uh, inappropriate venues:

Florida Democratic Party spokesman Mark Bubriski quickly rattled off the names of Republicans caught in sex scandals: "There's no Mark Foley, no Larry Craig, no David Vitter. Where's Bob Allen? He's the guy who said he was afraid of black guys and that's why he offered a police officer $20 to perform a sex act.''

Then there's this:

One of the articles in the magazine says Martin Luther King Jr. was a Republican.

HAHA HAHAHAHAHAHA. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. AAAAAAAHAHAHAHA.

Seriously. J. Edgar Hoover. How many black people don't know what that son of a bitch was all about?

New Voter Registration Drive: Day 1

I went out on South St. and then Pine St. today for a couple of hours with another volunteer who had driven down from Reading for the day. It was singularly unproductive, but I think we'll do better when it gets warm again.

There are still people on the street wearing Clinton buttons.

Sign up here to join us.

Total for day 1: 3 registrations.

Next You'll Tell Me He's Black

Shorter NYTimes:

Barack Obama is a politician.

My Name is Legion; For We Are Many

Ran across an anti-Scientology protest today in Center City:

 

They were wearing those creepy "V is for Vendetta" masks and handing out the leaflets above. Apparently, the "Anonymous" people who protest Scientology remain anonymous because they claim harassment by the church. I believe it.

One of the protesters had a sign that said, "What Kind of Church Has a Secret Police?", and I thought, "The Catholics, but that's a slightly different story."

Also, considering the source from which "We Are Legion" is derived, it's a strange subhed.

I hope for obvious reasons, no comments on this post.

Vice Presidential Straw Poll

Chris Bowers is running a Vice Presidential straw poll.

Local Program: Philly Sex Toy Store

To whoever showed up here looking for kinky medical toys shop in Phila area, please go either here or here.

Get Ready for Bush's Gitmo Gambit

Interesting Jeffrey Toobin article in the April 14 New Yorker (that I hadn't read before now because of the primary) on the possibility Bush will propose the creation of new "national-security courts" which will limit the fair-trial rights of Gitmo detainees:

[A]ccording to lawyers inside and outside government, the Bush Administration may launch a proposal for a national-security court this summer or fall, after what they presume will be its next loss in the Supreme Court [in the case regarding the denial of habeas corpus to Gitmo defendants, Boumediene v. Bush]. “It looks like when Boumediene comes down the Court may say to the President and Congress that they need more procedures for the detainees,” [former Bush Administration lawyer Jack] Goldsmith said. “So, to correct the problem [sic], the President might consider sending something up to Congress this summer or fall. It would help the Republicans in the fall election.” The measure would force congressional Democrats to take a stand on the issue in the middle of the campaign—just as Bush did successfully with the Military Commissions Act after the Hamdan defeat [holding, among other things, that the Geneva Conventions applied to Gitmo detainees]. “It worked very well in 2006,” Goldsmith said. “The only way the Democrats have to not make it an election issue is to give the President the powers he seeks.”

If Congressional Democrats don't prepare for this eventuality, Goldsmith's analysis sounds right: The Dems will roll over for Bush. But "this summer or fall" -- I don't know when Boumediene will come down -- seems to provide plenty of time to prepare an alternative plan that can be introduced when the time comes. The key issues, as I see it, are truly impartial juries and viable avenues of appeal against questionable evidence, like hearsay. Clearly, it's not possible politically to argue for full trial rights, but we can make the case that enabling defendants to vigorously defend themselves on the facts will produce better decisions and raise our standing in the eyes of the world.

Fun facts: The notorious Camp X-ray is closed but left intact as evidence by order of a federal judge. Detainees are now housed in Camp Delta.

Also:

The head of the Guantánamo Task Force is Admiral Mark Buzby. Moments before he entered a conference room for our interview, an aide brought in the Stars and Stripes and a one-star admiral’s flag and set them behind his chair. Buzby is relentlessly on message about the continuing value of the interrogations. “We ask them, ‘Tell us how you did that forgery stuff.’ That’s as timely now as it was back then,” he told me. “We are filling in the mosaic.” Buzby noted that the detainees’ interrogation sessions were sometimes catered by the base’s fast-food outlets. “They want those Subway sandwiches!” he said. “Sometimes they just want to talk. Meanwhile, he’s chomping on his Subway B.M.T. It’s all about that give-and-take and that rapport-building. We still get regular questions in for us to ask from the front in the field. We’ll show him a map: ‘Thanks a lot, have a Big Mac.’ ”

The Subway B.M.T. is a sandwich made of pork salami, pork pepperoni and ham. Pork is forbidden under Islam. Either Buzby's facts are wrong, or these terrifying Wahhabist terrorists are such lax Muslims that they don't keep halal.

Ask The Jihadist

In response to the news that al-Qaeda Second-in-Command Ayman al-Zawahri would answer questions from the media and public, the April 28th New Yorker:

Dear Ayman al-Zawahiri:

Please find attached my homemade terror video, entitled “Death to America.” In it, you will see that I brandish an AK-47, make angry facial expressions, and threaten the infidels with imminent doom. Am seeking a full- or part-time position with Al Qaeda making spooky tapes. Have own cave.

—Fingers Crossed in Peshawar

Ayman al-Zawahiri writes:

Thank you for sharing this with us. While I’m afraid your terror video does not meet our needs at the present time, we would be interested in seeing anything scary you do in the future. ...

Dear Ayman al-Zawahiri:

Does Al Qaeda ever endorse political candidates? If so, I recommend that you give a big thumbs-up to Barack Obama. I guarantee you he hates America as much as you do (if not more)! It would be great if you appeared in a bunch of TV ads and called him “the evildoing President that evildoers have been waiting for.”

—Bill in Chappaqua

Ayman al-Zawahiri writes:

Al Qaeda is only interested in American elections to the extent that we can plunge them into abject chaos. So this year, as in every other year, we are supporting Ralph Nader.

Greetings and compliments to you, my good sir:

I am the widow of the late Nigerian head of state, General Sani Abacha. Please wire $15,000 in U.S. funds to the bank information provided below and in two weeks’ time you will receive $150,000 for your kindly services, my goodly gentleman.

—Mrs. Maryam Abacha

Lagos

Ayman al-Zawahiri writes:

What kind of simpleton do you take me for? I sent you $15,000 last month and I never heard back.

Speaking of Dystopias

Yikes:

Authorities say one person is dead and several others are ill on board a train that has been placed under quarantine in northern Ontario after the outbreak of a mystery illness.

Ambulances rushed to the hamlet of Foleyet, Ontario, where medical workers are treating people for flu-like symptoms and trying to determine the cause of the outbreak.

Authorities say there are 260 passengers and 30 crew members on the train which was quarantined on Friday.

Via Rail spokeswoman Catherine Kaloutsky confirmed that one person died. Police say as many as 10 people are ill with flu-like symptoms.

Police say no one is being allowed onto the train without full protective gear.

The past few months, people around Philadelphia have been laid low by a variety of viruses that have lingered for weeks on end. I'm still wheezing from the flu I caught April 6th. Other people have reported coughs that don't end after a month. I was joking with someone the other day that the government is not telling us everything it knows about these bugs, and she said in all seriousness that she thinks the government is creating and spreading them. I was about to call her crazy, then hesitated, and said it was unproved.

Present Future

Duncan asks, "What happened to the future?":

It's occurred to me recently that all the whiz-bang gadgets predicted either already exist in some form, or are unlikely to exist anytime soon. If one were to write a technology-centric non-dystopian novel about, say, the year 2040, what neato things would we imagine?

I can't come up with much.

All the recent (post-1975) technological innovations were outgrowths of trends and cultural desires that existed long before then. Using that as a framework, I think we can come up with a few ideas about where things might go. I don't know if my predictions are "non-dystopian", but here they are:

1. Medical innovation: Americans are health-obsessed and desire both more control over and information about their health. At the same time, there are some really exciting technical developments that could provide real benefits while responding to the public's demands. For example, gene therapy, stem cell treatments and nanotech drug delivery hold out the possibility of dramatic improvements in the care of certain ailments.  The layman has the impression that the key to making these seemingly-magical treatments work is early detection, so the demand for constant or frequent, inexpensive, consumer-administered monitoring will be high. Both home-based and wearable hardware for monitoring will be developed, as well as new over-the-counter tests. Also, consumers want drugs which will improve their lives, not just cure disease. Viagra is just the start. More and more effective drugs which make us healthier and enhance specific desirable characteristics will be developed in response to that demand. All of this requires more and better information about the possible choices, a need that will be filled both online by blogs and consumer forums, and by medical entrepreneurs like independent health coaches.
2. Entertainment and communication: Take the cell phone, the ipod, handheld gaming devices and broadband internet and make them more powerful, faster, cheaper, and more ubiquitous, and what do you get? Overload. Managing the data stream will be the story. That means more creative and intelligent ways of screening out unwanted contact and information, and automating the process of finding relevant data and contacts. Spam filters are the Model T. What the hell does that mean? I don't know. All I know is that people have been talking about how your toaster will have an IP address in the future, and I just don't see it happening. Geeks like to talk about capacities as if they were predestined realities, and that's not the case. What grew and shaped the internet, for example, was porn. Why? Because people wanted to look at it without buying it through the mail or at a shop. It's pretty simple: What do people want? They want to select the amount of information and electronic contact they are exposed to. Give them that ability.
3. Personal energy generation: Every list needs three items, so here's the third. High energy costs and energy-related environmental concerns are here to stay. People are working on new technologies like fuel cells, super-long-life batteries, home solar power, etc. Some of these are going to have real breakthroughs while others languish, we don't know which, but something radical will emerge. Maybe you'll be able to generate sufficient electricity to run your house by exploiting the heat gradient between your roof in summer and the dirt ten feet under your basement.  Maybe office buildings (currently the number one source of greenhouse gases) will be able to have their own fuel-cell power plants on the roof, every window will also be a solar panel and the building shell will have the ability to "breathe" or become super-insulating depending on the weather.

Perhaps all this is wrong, and the future is dystopian: personal body armor and anti-pollution full-body suits. Wait and see.

Apropos of nothing: It just occurred to me that wikipedia links are not true permalinks, because the content is by definition constantly changing. Should you have the ability to link to a specific snapshot of a page (hosted by wikipedia, of course) that existed at any given time? That would create a huge multiplier for the number of pages hosted there, which may be impossible. Also, it requires the creation of a tool that compares two snapshots and highlights the differences automatically, which is a relatively trivial task.

Letter from a Sex Worker

Here:

I think at this juncture, I should defend the men that came to see me. There was nothing wrong with them, and they were not perverts. Most of my clients were single, unhappily married or married to a person that couldn't understand their needs. One even had a wife with cancer. I know you're probably thinking that he's the worst of all, but sex is important. He needed the comfort and solace of flesh against flesh, and in today's society, the only way to get the flesh against flesh comfort is sex.

I guess my role as a sex worker was to reclaim the human contact that has been lost with our island centric way of living. When was the last time you truly just held a person that wasn't your lover with no thoughts of the sensuality of the situation? Touch used to be a very important thing for people. We want to be touched. We need to be touched. Truth be told, I did more pillow talk snuggling with my clients than anything else. Even the submissive clients, after their fill of their fetish, wanted to be cherished. The older men and the lonely men, which seemed to go hand in hand, raced through coitus and settled down for the rest of their time with my head on their chest to talk about their days. This is not the behaviour of deviants and perverts. This is the behaviour of a person reaching out for affection.

I think this explains why women hug so much, are so physically connected to each other. It's support. Men's culture denies them that. (They support each other in other ways, but not that way.) It's not a choice, it's imposed from outside then internalized.

(Via Susannah Breslin.)

Declarations of Victory

Consider the source, but Politico says:

Not long after the polls close in the May 20 Kentucky and Oregon primaries, Barack Obama plans to declare victory in his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination.

And, until at least May 31 and perhaps longer, Hillary Clinton’s campaign plans to dispute it.

It’s a train wreck waiting to happen ... .

Clinton bloggers are outraged, naturally. One of the most unhinged says, "Why doesn't he declare himself the King of Spain while he's at it?"  James Joyner, of all people, talks sense:

[O]ne could argue that not declaring victory after passing the 2,025 threshold would be a tacit admission that Clinton is right.

Yes, one could. Going back to my post about how elections are games:

Like all games, an election has contestants who win or lose by competition, there are rules which set forth the means of measuring who wins and rules which govern the competitive conduct of the contestants, and someone must set the rules in advance and someone must enforce those rules during the game. ... There will [always] be disagreements about rule interpretation and application ... .

If Obama does not claim to have won once he has a majority of the total pledged delegates, he would be abandoning his interpretation of the rules. And if Clinton accepted his victory at that point, she would be too. In this sense, far from being a "trainwreck", it's the normal course of how this particular game is conducted.

Taking the insane Clinton blogger's analogy literally, let's say someone was widely acknowledged to be next in the line of succession to the spanish throne, but there was someone else who claimed to be the rightful heir under a different interpretation of the rules of succession. When the old King dies, both of them would make their claim, believing themselves to be in the right. To do otherwise would be bizarre and self-defeating.

One peculiarity of this game is that the referee might not blow the whistle to end it and announce the winner for a long time after the condition for victory has been met, at the convention in August. But this game also has more than one ref, and more than one way of blowing the whistle - the superdelegates and party leaders, and the losing candidate accepting defeat, respectively.  Given that the last primaries are only two weeks after Obama will (presumably) claim victory, I think those alternate refs will wait until then and declare him the winner shortly thereafter.

Time to Get Involved: Voter Registration Drive Starts Saturday

Go here and sign up for this:

On May 10th, Barack Obama is launching Vote for Change, an unprecedented 50-state voter registration and mobilization drive. More than 100 events will be held across the country that day. Obama volunteers will register new voters as the start of a six-month voter registration drive.

 

The Turkey Round

During the internet boom, my law work consisted mainly of company-side venture capital deals, raising money for web and high-tech startups in the Valley Forge area. Startup venture capital is raised by issuing preferred stock at different stages of the company's development, called the "A round", "B round", "C round", etc. Since the situation all startups face during each round is similar, the letters began to take on a meaning other than just identifying the order of the financing: An A-round company meant one that was newly-hatched, a B-round company was one that had experienced initial success and required more capital to continue growing, etc.  The usual paths to success for a company was to either make itself into an acquisition target so that both the preferred stockholders got their cut and the original owners could cash out, or the company became self-financing for future capital needs. Obviously, as you got further down the alphabet, the prospects of the startup becoming a successs began to dwindle. At some point, the idea of yet another financing was referred to as the "T round" - T as in turkey - because it was a lost cause.

Consider:

Experts disagree on whether or not Clinton will actually stick in the fight until the Democratic National Convention in August. But the date looms large for another reason—at least, if she hopes to recoup any of the millions she has sunk into the campaign. Thanks to a little-known provision in 2002's McCain-Feingold campaign-finance reform bill, a campaign must repay the loan to a candidate before Election Day. In this case, that's the nominating convention. After the election has passed, a bankrupt campaign is limited to gathering just $250,000 from contributors, which means that modest sum is all it can give back to a candidate. In short, Clinton stands to lose $11,150,000. "If she wants to be repaid, she'd have to move on that between now and the national convention," says former Federal Election Commission chairman Michael Toner. "Otherwise, it just becomes another contribution." The campaign, meanwhile, has other debts to consider as well. According to her latest FEC filing, the Hillary Clinton for President campaign committee owes millions to vendors, including more than $4.5 million to Penn, Schoen & Berland Associates, the consulting firm of her former chief strategist Mark Penn.

That adds another wrinkle to her decision to stay in the race. Time is running out to pay off friends, allies, and vendors. Plus, by all accounts, Clinton's most ardent supporters are tapped out, either unwilling or unable by law to donate any more.

The article speculates that Hillary and Obama could work out a deal which would involve him fundraising on her behalf.  I doubt it, but the idea is out there.

Babies for Obama

This is just cute. The Obama onesie:

Available here.

(Sorry for the crappy cameraphone pic.)

The Logical Conclusion of Race-Baiting Tactics

At least, I hope it's the conclusion:

"I have a much broader base to build a winning coalition on," she said in an interview with USA TODAY. As evidence, Clinton cited an Associated Press article "that found how Sen. Obama's support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again, and how whites in both states who had not completed college were supporting me."

"Hard-working Americans, white Americans". You don't get any clearer than that: Hillary Clinton says black Americans are lazy. Also, any whites who vote for Obama must be those elitists who do whatever the "creative class" does, meaning not real work. I hope this ends any uncertainty over whether the Clinton campaign is using the tactics of playing on white working-class racial and class resentment, and that it's self-evident that doing so disqualifies her, and has disqualified her since the South Carolina primary, from being the Democratic nominee.

"There's a pattern emerging here," she said. ...

Yes, Senator, there certainly is.

Clinton rejected any idea that her emphasis on white voters could be interpreted as racially divisive. "These are the people you have to win if you're a Democrat in sufficient numbers to actually win the election. Everybody knows that."

The Democrats have not won a majority of whites since Johnson. I wish we could appeal to a majority of all people this time around. But it's not going to happen Hillary's way. The way it could happen is by encouraging people to identify with those who don't look like themselves or work the same kind of jobs as themselves, and realize that we are all must work together, that we're all in the same boat. It could happen Obama's way.

The only good thing that will come out of this is that, as with Rev. Wright, Hillary is using a watered-down version of the same attacks McCain's surrogates will use in the general election campaign. This tends to innoculate Obama somewhat from the far more virulent version which will come down the road.

(Via Duncan.)

The Convincing Win

No one threatened to kill me today. Instead, I had the best political volunteering experience of my life.

In the precinct I was assigned to, North Carolina's Cumberland County Lr-63, at Engine 11 Fire Station in Fayetteville, it was record turnout: Obama 637, Clinton 83. That wasn't the good part, though. I got to actually get people to vote who were turned away by clerical errors or other glitches. I managed to stop one woman who was about to leave, got Obama headquarters to contact the county general counsel, who contacted the board of elections general counsel, who placed a phone to the precinct 20 minutes after I called it in, saying that she should be given a new ballot.

It rocked.

The numbers I heard statewide are Obama 65%, Clinton 35%. I also heard that they initially called Indiana for Hillary but now it's too close to call.

Time to party.

Raleigh Today

A drunk, one-armed man just threatened to shoot me.

I'm in Raleigh to do poll watching tomorrow, but got in early and joined in the canvassing. Went down a dusty gravel road and knocked on a few doors. Most were not home, as usual, but one house had Johnny Cash on the stereo. The inhabitant was as drunk as anyone I have ever seen who was still standing. He took so long to answer questions, staring blankly, that I thought he had passed out on his feet. Finally determining the voter I was looking for had moved, I said goodbye and he said he would shoot me if I came back. I said thanks. Probably a Hillary supporter.

Looking forward to barbecue and standing outside a fire station for 13 hours tomorrow.

Maybe somebody can loan me a chair.

You're Not Going to Knock it Off, Are You?

Hillary's new Indiana mailer.

Nice, right wing frame you got there, Senator. You should have crosshairs over his face, though. That would complete the picture.

Update: Via John Cole, this:

“The gun in the photo does not exist,” said Val Forgett III, president of Navy Arms in Martinsburg, W.Va. Forgett's company was Mauser’s agent in the United States when the gun was released, and it sold Mauser guns here again in the 1990s. “The bolt is facing to the left side of the receiver, making it a left-handed bolt action rifle, indicating whoever constructed and approved the mailer did not recognize the image has been reversed.”

Forgett said the error would be obvious to sportsmen.

“I find it laughable on its face,” he said. “It’s like a picture of Babe Ruth hitting right-handed.” ...

The Mauser 66, released in 1966 and no longer manufactured, is a high-end hunting rifle that found military use as a sniper rifle. In Clinton’s mailing, it’s pictured with a double-set trigger, a customization that’s popular in Europe but “almost unheard of in the United States,” Forgett said.

“It’s a $2,200 German import — it’s hardly typical of what the average workingman in Indiana uses,” he said.

Oops. It's like sending out a mailer saying "Barack Obama doesn't care how much you have to pay to put gas in your car" with a picture of a Cayenne turbo. Pretty gun, though.

Just Stop It

Oliver is right, she sounds just like Bush:

"I'm not going to put my lot in with economists," the New York senator said when asked to name a credible economist who supported her proposal.

"We've got to get out of this mind-set where somehow elite opinion is always on the side of doing things that really disadvantage the vast majority of Americans," said Clinton, a former first lady who would be the first woman president.

We don't need no economists telling us how to run our economy, or scientists telling us what the facts are on global warming, or fancy-pants lawyers telling us about habeas corpus. What's a habeas anyway?

Ogged calls her "GW Clinton". Ow.

Since his assistant has not been approving my comments for publication, I'll just have to wait to see if Krugman defends this. It's a test, Paul.

How Did I Do?

I am setting this post up on May 4, 2006, to see how my predictions on this day are looking a year later. I said I thought that McCain would be the GOP nominee, and if Giuliani were the nominee, the Democrat would win in a walk. The Republican Convention is now 4 months away. How are my predictions holding up?

Voter Disenfranchisement by Photo ID: Scope of the Problem

The documented cases of in-person vote fraud are very, very sparse. On the other hand, for several reasons, about 13 million Americans do not have photo ID.  (Per the 2006 census, 225,746,457 Americans over the age of 18, multipled by a national average of US-born adults without documentation necessary for ID at 5.7%.)

Disproportionately, these people are rural, black, poor and old. In addition, approximately another 8 million don't otherwise use photo ID would incur the cost of lost wages for the time spent getting the ID, as well as the fees involved.

In comparison to the 21 million potential disenfranchised voters, recent Presidential elections have been decided by fewer than 8 million votes. So there you have the reason for these laws.

Back when Jim Crow was at its height, white racist government officials would levy a poll tax that poor, rural black voters could not afford and that would prevent them from voting. They'd waive the poll tax for some poor whites. Today's Republican Jim Crow consists of disenfranchising all poor voters, mainly black but white ones too.

Local Programming: Italian Market Festival, May 17 & 18

Spam Turns 30

This message was followed by someone emailing around a nude picture of a model:

It was 30 years ago this Saturday that users of Arpanet, a U.S. government-designed precursor to the Internet, logged onto their accounts to find what is considered the first piece of unsolicited commercial e-mail ever sent.

It was a pitch for a new computer. "We invite you to come see the 2020 and hear about the DECSYSTEM-20 family at the two product presentations we will be giving in California this month," read the missive, sent by a salesman named Gary Thuerk on May 3, 1978.

Thuerk's e-mail prompted an aggravated discussion among the service's users, the relatively small number of high-level academics with access to computers that then cost hundreds of thousands of dollars.

"This is a clear and flagrant abuse of the directory!" one of the hundreds of users [ed: future Sen. Al Gore] on Thuerk's recipient list complained in a public reply.

Funny how spam and porn are now the biggest revenue generators on the web.

Hold Steady

A Little Good News: Unselfish People

Not everyone who wants to win is a prick:

With two runners on base and a strike against her, Sara Tucholsky of Western Oregon University uncorked her best swing and did something she had never done, in high school or college. Her first home run cleared the center-field fence.

But it appeared to be the shortest of dreams come true when she missed first base, started back to tag it and collapsed with a knee injury.

She crawled back to first but could do no more. The first-base coach said she would be called out if her teammates tried to help her. Or, the umpire said, a pinch runner could be called in, and the homer would count as a single.

Then, members of the Central Washington University softball team stunned spectators by carrying Tucholsky around the bases Saturday so the three-run homer would count — an act that contributed to their own elimination from the playoffs.

Central Washington first baseman Mallory Holtman, the career home run leader in the Great Northwest Athletic Conference, asked the umpire if she and her teammates could help Tucholsky.

The umpire said there was no rule against it.

So Holtman and shortstop Liz Wallace put their arms under Tucholsky’s legs, and she put her arms over their shoulders. The three headed around the base paths, stopping to let Tucholsky touch each base with her good leg. ...

“We didn’t know that she was a senior or that this was her first home run,” Wallace said Wednesday. “That makes the story more touching than it was. We just wanted to help her.” ...

As the trio reached home plate, Tucholsky said, the entire Western Oregon team was in tears. ...

“In the end, it is not about winning and losing so much,” Holtman said. “It was about this girl. She hit it over the fence and was in pain, and she deserved a home run.”

The injury ends Tucholsky's career, so the homer was her last at-bat.

(Via aimai.)

Top of the Pops

A website that tells you what the Billboard #1 song was on any date, all the way back to 1891.

(Via Gib.)