It may not be popular to say this, but not only does it seem likely that Clinton will not drop out before June 3rd, but it also doesn't seem like a good idea for her to do so. Achieving the sort of closure necessary for a healed, unified party for the general election will require Clinton supporters feeling as though they were allowed to fight until there were no more realistic options remaining. I firmly believe that healing and unifying the party will be quicker and easier if the campaign comes to a slow, gradual conclusion rather than a quick knockout on either April 22nd or May 6th, or a massive superdelegate swing sometime later in May. To use an analogy, the pain will be less with a gradual withdrawal via the patch as Obama slowly builds on his advantage, then if we attempt to abruptly cold turkey on an unannounced date. In fact, it strikes me as quite possible that the party will be almost instantly unified following a mid-June Clinton withdrawal if events between now and then slowly, rather than rapidly, build the case that Clinton cannot win the nomination. In order to achieve the closure necessary for unity, Clinton supporters need to become convinced that there is no way she can win the nomination, and that will not happen all at once. Build slowly over time, and by mid-June we will be ready to unify behind Obama and beat McCain in the general election.
I was arguing to Booman and Ali Eteraz at Drinking Liberally a couple of weeks ago that, given the emotional investment of each candidate's supporters, it's actually better to have a long, drawn-out primary season than a sudden, unexpected end. (Booman was saying he hoped the media narrative that Hillary couldn't win would drive her poll numbers down in Pennsylvania so that Obama would win here on April 22.) Just like the death of a loved one, coming to accept that your favorite candidate is going to lose takes time. At the risk of being too glib about it, we've seen anger, bargaining and denial so far on the part of the Clintonistas. Chris is exactly right that seeing the fight through will benefit the party as a whole, because it gives the die-hards the time they need to accept that it's over.
Just like the death of a loved one, coming to accept that your favorite candidate is going to lose takes time.
Which is odd, in a way. I mean, as a progressive Democrat, I have a great deal of experience in knowing my favorite candidate was going to lose...
Which may be why it's so emotional this time, in part. Because supporters of either Dem candidate are not irrational in thinking that this year it's different, this year we can reasonably expect to win in November. If that makes sense.
Posted by: Thers | April 09, 2008 at 01:48 PM
Yeah, I was just about to post that very thing. When we lost, we were united. But when we have had success, we split into factions. For example: When Atrios came into his own and started being taken somewhat seriously by the the MSM, we had people complaining that he wouldn't link to them, or post about biofuels or whatever their favorite subject was. And when we won Congress back in '06, there was heated disagreement about whether we should back conservative Dems like Bob Casey, because any Dem was better than any Republican, or oppose anyone not sufficiently pure, no matter how conservative the constituency? (I guess that gives away my opinion.) Similarly, as you say, now the Presidency seems like a lock, there are those who have become violently opposed to people who should be their friends, at least ideologically. I'm not a shrink, but I think these people are perpetual adolescents who revel in feeling oppressed and only are only happy when railing at the injustice aimed at them personally, so they have to invent some when it doesn't exist. The easiest way to do that is to antagonize others enough that they will fight, since a fight is all they want. So we shouldn't engage such people. In short, DNFTFT.
Posted by: Mithras | April 09, 2008 at 02:42 PM
United-
Hmmm- NAFTA destroyed the unions in pennsylvania and the dreams of our fathers. The mills sit empty with the lost dreams of the children.
Foreign interests cam in and bought our mortgages.
Now, united we are!! Vote for Change
Send the message to Clintons- NO MORE!!
Posted by: x-steelworker | April 11, 2008 at 06:20 PM