I predicted 5 points; it turned out to be 7:
For several days, nationwide Democratic voters' preferences have been shifting toward Barack Obama in Gallup Poll Daily election tracking. Now, the Illinois senator enjoys his first statistically significant lead, 49% to 42%, over Hillary Clinton, according to the Feb. 13-15 results. Additionally, the 49% support for Obama represents the high point for him in the daily tracking program.
As I said before, I am hesitant to say this is a lasting trend. I still think it will bounce around until March 4 with Obama in the lead at more or less 5+ most of that time, and after that either it will still essentially be a tie or Hillary will quit depending on the outcome March 4. Out of sheer bloody-mindedness, I'd love for the whole mess to come steaming into Pennsylvania on April 22, but I doubt that is the best thing for the party.
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