Eagles-Pats Predictions

If you don't care about football, look away.

So I was out watching the game Sunday night, and as we watched Tom Brady play catch with his receivers, the subject came up of what the line on the Eagles-Pats game this Sunday should be. I, being an eternal optimist, said 24, and was immediately beset by rabid Igglesfans for my temerity. TWENTY FOUR?? they shrieked in outrage.

So, apparently, the actual line is 22, and the outrage has become an epidemic:

Are the Eagles that bad? Are the Patriots that good? Either way, Sunday night probably won't be much fun.

Have people not been paying attention to what the Pats have been doing? What they have been doing, with the exception of the Colts game, is destroying spreads. Why? Because spreads still assume standard NFL behavior, and the Pats are on a mission to destroy every opponent they face, which is not standard. Moreover, they have the tools to carry out this intention. I think bookies just can't accept that they're not about to calm down and start acting "normal".  No team has ever combined their raw talent with an attitude that what they're doing every Sunday is not playing a game, but waging a vendetta. I grant you, it's novel, but how long do you need to see what's right in front of you? If you were confused about this initially, the Cowboys, Dolphins and Redskins games should have wised you up. 

So, no, 22 is not unreasonable, it's a joke. Twenty four is being really generous to Philly. This game is in Foxboro. I really think the Patriot offense might reach the end zone every time they touch the ball, because the Eagles secondary is really, really, really not prepared for them. Bottom line: Anyone who takes the points is a fool.

Update: The Editors weigh in on the whining:

So now playing three quarters is too much. Should there be a mercy rule in the NFL? Should games end when one team goes up by 30? Should the refs be allowed to call a ‘TKO’, so as to prevent serious injury to the fragile egos of sportsnerds? I’m asking these questions because I don’t know how to answer them. I’m asking these questions because, aside from having a disgruntled linebacker shiv Tom Brady prison-yard style during the halftime show, I’m not sure of the extra-sporting way of dealing with the fact that your favorite football team totally fucking sucks at football.

Update gameday: The line is currently 25 and I am going to be the new owner of Eschaton! Mars, bitches!

Update nine pints of Yards later: Fuck! I mean, fuck! Dude! Etc.

Comments

[Gib]

I would also like to register my objection to NBC's apparent decision to pick every Patriots game from now until the end of the season as the Sunday night game. It's bad enough here in Atlanta to get saddled with the damn Falcons every week, but at least we could expect a decent night game.

Watching the Patriots play anyone is only going to be entertaining if Tom Brady starts nailing supermodels on the sideline between drives.

Also, if it's any consolation to Eagles fans, those of us who call ourselves Rams fans would kill for your problems right now.

[Mithras]

Watching the Patriots play anyone is only going to be entertaining if Tom Brady starts nailing supermodels on the sideline between drives.

There's a joke about "three and out" in there somewhere, but I haven't had all my coffee yet.

Also, if it's any consolation to Eagles fans ...

This would be the only consolation Igglesfans would accept. That or human sacrifice.

[JC]

aside from having a disgruntled linebacker shiv Tom Brady prison-yard style during the halftime show

That would be awesome.

[bibimimi]

Bridget Moynahan used to call the the "two minute drill"

[Mithras]

Heh @ "two minute drill".

[ibid]

I think bookies just can't accept that they're not about to calm down and start acting "normal".

Actually, the bettors' behavior, not the bookies' prediction, determines the line. I think the line reflects the unwillingness of bettors to put down money on an unusually large spread for an NFL game, since 25 point spreads are basically unheard of (ESPN says this is the largest spread since 1976 when the champion Steelers were favored by 24 over the expansion Bucs -- and won 42-0). Once the bettors get used to the idea that the Patriots won't ease up when they are up 28 (and therefore won't give up a garbage time score to change the outcome of the bets), the bookies will offer the higher spread. Even then, it will still be lowered somewhat because of the possibility that Brady goes down in the first.

Just checked Tradesports, and you can buy the Pats at -21.5 for 56, so FWIW the "market" gives the Eagles a 44% chance of keeping it within three touchdowns.

[Publicus]

I'm hoping Feeley and the Eagles BEAT the Patriots....not just the spread. Unlikely? Yep. But upsets DO happen...

I'm just sayin...