Hail Mary, Full of Shit, May the Force Be With You

Responding to some Roger Cohen nonsense (that I can't read because it's Times Select), Duncan writes:

What drives me nuts about this residual force stuff, aside from how arbitrary it is, is that there's never any thought to exactly what these 50,000 should do. Basically, as the violence rages around them they're supposed to sit there to ensure that... there isn't even more violence raging around them. But it isn't really enough people to actually intervene, especially given that not even close to that many would be combat troops.

Let's start the morning with a little heresy to go with that titular blasphemy: Duncan Black is wrong! about there being no thought as to what the residual force will do. It's just that there are a few different scenarios, and none of them can be discussed in public without causing a great, big political uproar.  All of them are predicated on the analysis that Wesley Clark put forward: If you think things couldn't get worse if we withdraw, think again. The Saudis have lost faith in the ability of the U.S. to protect the Kingdom, so they have been arming Sunni militant groups, some with ties to al-Qaeda, in Syria, Iraq and Iran to give them a tool to use against Iranian-funded Shiite groups.  In the event of an American withdrawal, that support will go into overdrive, which will probably result in the Very Bad Outcome of (a) the outbreak of a regional proxy war between the Saudis and the Iranians, and (b) the effective legitimization of al-Qaeda by Saudi Arabia.

So, if you believe the foregoing, and you want to draw down U.S. force levels (because our mission has failed), then you have to make yourself believe that there are scenarios in which the foregoing will not happen. The possible scenarios involving a residual U.S. force of 50,000 personnel located on bases in Iraq outside of urban areas I can think of (I am sure there are others) are:

1. The Fairytale Official Story: As the U.S. withdraws, the Iraqi government comes to its senses and puts together a nonsectarian army and police force that restore order, then constitutional democracy breaks out. The residual force of the glorious liberating American Army remains as honored guests. Na gah na happen, but it's the only scenario that can be mentioned in polite company.
2. The Effective Partition: An oil-sharing plan is put into place, all the factions are bought off, and the Sunni, Shia and Kurds retreat to their respective political and geographical spheres of influence.  The residual force provides a little muscle to enforce the agreement and occupies bases through which additional force can brought in if the deal collapses.
3. Military Dictatorship: Civilian rule collapses, and a junta seizes power in the name of restoring order. The residual force is its air force and provides some airmobile ground support.

Now, are any of these scenarios likely to come true? No. They're possible outcomes which are better than the regional war scenario. Now, we got into this mess because a bunch of people engaged in fantasy wish-fulfillment rather than serious planning, and of course we run the risk of the same sort of fantasizing in planning the withdrawal. But there are no good options. Bush has well and truly fucked things up and all that we're left with is a hope and a prayer. The occupation has failed. The residual-force scenarios probably won't work, either. But if it fails, as it probably will, that just leaves us where we are now. A complete withdrawal is always the last option.

Update: Oh, I forgot to mention, the other reason why the "residual force" idea is politically palatable - and thus, may lend itself to more fantasizing - is that it is not "defeat and retreat." It gives the impression that all was not for naught, even though it was.