Juan Cole:
The unemployment rate is still very high among Shiites in the south. The Great Depression in the US was defined by an unemployment rate of about 25%. That among Iraqis is much higher, perhaps still twice that in a lot of places. Those who complain about the proliferation of militias should remember that militiamen get stipends, and joining one is often a way to make some desperately needed money. Higher employment would make such dangerous work less appealing. Despite the bright promises of American rule, sewage still flows in the streets in the Shiite slums, and there often is not clean drinking water. Most important of all, the Americans promised democracy, but have consistently shut down attempts to have free and fair elections, even (for the most part) at the municipal level. (John Bourne's experiment with open municipal elections in the small towns around Nasiriyah is a praiseworthy exception, but it is an exception). There is a growing fear that the Americans intend to turn the country over to their corrupt cronies, such as fraudster Ahmad Chalabi, and there will be a new, neo-colonial "soft" dictatorship like that in Egypt (also a regime propped up by the Americans).
I think the "soft" dictatorship was the fallback option all along. For some, maybe not so "fallback" and not so "soft". It's clear that we have slim to no chance of imposing a human- and civil-rights respecting, non-theological democracy on the country, if for no other reason the Iraqi people don't like having U.S. soldiers riding through their neighborhoods like conquerors. I think the smarter members of the Bush administration knew that from day one. One way or another, their commitment to this project expires when the polls close on November 2, 2004.
Technically, a depression is defined as 4 consecutive declines in GDP.
Posted by: Ben | April 14, 2004 at 08:48 AM