Nate Silver has revolutionized polling for me. Not only does he predict the vote percentages, but also computes the likelihood of each candidate winning.
Races I am interested in:
U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania: Far-right Republican Pat Toomey has a 97% chance of beating Joe Sestak.
Pennsylvania Governor: Republican Tom Corbett, a real thug, has a 98% chance of beating Dan Onorato.
Pennsylvania 8th: Rep. Pat Murphy, who lead the charge on repealing DADT, has a 73% chance of losing to Mike Fitzpatrick.
In Florida, Alan Grayson has a 89% chance of losing. So much for "be outspokenly liberal and voters will love you for it".
In Wisconsin, Russ Feingold has a 96% chance of losing. Same comment.
Sharron Angle now has an 83% chance of beating Harry Reid in Nevada.
Rand Paul has a 100% chance of winning in Kentucky.
On the other hand, Chris Coons now has a 100% chance of beating Christine O'Donnell. So that's something.