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November 04, 2009


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Anyone know if the "vote no" Campaign in Maine was as incompetently run as the one in California?

Just the opposite. My impression was that the No on 1 people had absorbed the lessons of the Prop. 8 campaign and had foregrounded real gay and lesbian couples in Maine. I think the whole explanation is that the median age of Maine is 5 years greater than that of California, that is, lots of older folks in Maine.

Someone did an analysis of the support v/ age groups, and concluded that in 10 years or so, this will flip, as the old bigots die off, and are replaced by a younger cohort who grew up with gay friends....Except for Utah, which is going the other way.

I blame all the losses on the loss of Howard Dean and the 50-state strategy. The on-the-ground nationwide organizing has disappeared, and Democratic turnout everywhere was dismal.

I wouldn't overthink this loss. Yes, Maine is overhwelmingly white and elderly. It is also among the least religious states in the nation and notably "centrist" on certain (mostly environmental) issues. However, we are not terribly daring, and there is a big ideological divide between the inland rural north and coastal urban south. In the weeks leading up to election day, the No side had a small, soft lead in the polls, with undecideds at around 4%. That shifted in the final days, driven the Yes side's huge advertising blitz, which focused on a single message: militant gays will come into your schools and brainwash your kids into the gay lifestyle, complete with sinister music and phony quotes. Same tactic they used in CA (same campaign manager, too). There's nothing like in-your-face sexual hysteria to send the average middle-aged rural Mainer running for the lobster crackers...

zippy, are you saying rural Maine is conservative not in the social sense but is just unwilling to be innovative?

zippy, are you saying rural Maine is conservative not in the social sense but is just unwilling to be innovative?

Yes, exactly. They're good people up north, but an issue like gay marriage is still way outside their comfort zone. I really believe we lost this thing in the final days because of the Yes (anti-gay) side's last minute TV ad blitz. Our ads were all about fairness. Their ads were all about sodomized children. In rural Maine it was no contest.

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