The Kennedy Memorial Health Bill

Regarding this by Noam Scheiber (written Sunday, but with salience now):

If Kennedy were to pass away in the next few months, the Senate math on any health care vote would almost certainly get easier, not harder. For one thing, it would single-handedly make the magic number 51 votes, not 60, since it would be suicidal for the GOP to filibuster the culmination of the last Kennedy brother's lifelong crusade. Beyond that, I suspect the coverage of Kennedy's death would silence healthcare reform critics and boost proponents in a way that netted at least a couple of wavering moderates--so clearing the 51-vote threshold wouldn't be a problem. Heck, you might even see Utah Republican (and longtime Kennedy friend) Orrin Hatch back in the reformist camp.

Liberal blogger reaction ranges from perplexed to contemptuous: Steve Benen is skeptical. Duncan questions what planet Scheiber lives on. DougJ says he needs his meds adjusted.

They're probably right, but I just want to point out a reason they might be wrong: Scheiber and the New Republic represent Village consensus opinion. When something happens that we liberals think should shame conservatives into humble apologies - oh, the complete lack of WMDs in Iraq leaps to mind - and it doesn't, it's usually in part because the Village decided they were right to be wrong, or something.

If Scheiber's piece is representative, then the same process might work in our favor. The Senate is a weird, super-clubby place. The Village media regard Kennedy as a demigod, because of the great narrative they can sell on the occasion of the passing of the JFK generation. The Senator's funeral will be a huge event. The outcome may be that Kennedy is portrayed as a Moses-like figure, leading his cause for 40 years only to be denied seeing it come to fruition, but having faith that it would. That's a powerful force in the alternative reality of D.C., so it's possible that things will play out the way Scheiber predicts.

Comments

[zenpundit]

"For one thing, it would single-handedly make the magic number 51 votes, not 60, since it would be suicidal for the GOP to filibuster the culmination of the last Kennedy brother's lifelong crusade"

Umm...no. Much like Ronald Reagan dying did not stampede Democrats into voting 180 degrees against their general belifs. Does he actually know any Republicans?

[Mithras]

I would imagine he does, but as one of my profs used to say, "I've never had lunch with Congress. I've had lunch with members of Congress." Making the obvious point that there are no blocs, just collections of individuals with their own particular motives. It may very well be that "Republicans" are not persuaded, but that enough Senate Republicans are that it makes cloture easier.