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« The Permanent Campaign | Main | Yes, We Can Have Cuteness »

May 30, 2008

The Orderly Process and its Conclusion

I remain hopeful that this is correct:

Democratic strategists and other analysts foresee a resolution this weekend – one that positions Obama to wrap up the nomination soon – but there's always a chance Team Clinton opts to appeal to the party's credentials committee, which does not meet until summer. Its decision would then face ratification by the convention in late August, which opens up the possibility of a floor fight.

Intraparty warfare could mortally wound the Democrats' chances of mounting a successful effort against presumptive Republican nominee Sen. John McCain. And for that reason, party regulars don't see Senator Clinton damaging her standing in the party in that way.

"If Ted Kennedy is the lion of the Senate, at some point in the not-too-distant future, she could be the lioness of the Senate," says Peter Fenn, an unaffiliated Democratic strategist. "She needs to go back to that with some kind of strength and credibility, and if she's viewed as blowing up this process in the coming 12 weeks, then it's going to be extraordinarily difficult for her to do what she needs to do to be a real force in the Senate." ...

The final two primaries, Montana and South Dakota, are on June 3, and Obama is expected to win both. After that, most if not all of the remaining superdelegates are likely to announce their endorsements, with Obama expected to wind up with a majority of all delegates.       

"That's just the way it will go," says Cal Jillson, a political scientist at Southern Methodist University. "I think the Clinton forces are beginning to recognize that."             

There are people - mostly Republicans but also some stupid Democrats - who find the idea thrilling that Clinton would battle on through August, scorching the earth in battleground states against Obama and making her last stand in Denver.  The likely outcome of that would be President McCain, and the well-earned contempt of her party for Clinton. The Clintons are ruthless. Stupid, they're not.

(Via Rick Hasen.)

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