Iran is as Great a Threat as the Soviet Union?

Who is right?

Republican John McCain accused Democrat Barack Obama of inexperience and reckless judgment for saying Iran does not pose the same serious threat to the United States as the Soviet Union did in its day. ...

"Such a statement betrays the depth of Senator Obama's inexperience and reckless judgment. These are very serious deficiencies for an American president to possess," McCain said at the restaurant industry's annual meeting.

He was referring to comments Obama made Sunday in Pendleton, Ore.: "Iran, Cuba, Venezuela — these countries are tiny compared to the Soviet Union. They don't pose a serious threat to us the way the Soviet Union posed a threat to us. And yet we were willing to talk to the Soviet Union at the time when they were saying, `We're going to wipe you off the planet.'"

Soviet Political and Economic Power

Let's talk about the U.S.S.R.

The Soviet Union was the epicenter of a coherent, persuasive political ideology which was in direct conflict with that of the United States. This ideology was adopted by or heavily influenced the governments of countries on every continent except Antarctica, and was championed for a time by significant factions in the United States and other western countries.  This posed a grave political threat to the United States and its allies.

Economically, the Soviet Union grew rapidly before the inefficiencies of central planning killed it off. In 1930, its economy was 10% of the size of the U.S. economy. By 1950, it was 20% of the U.S. economy, and was larger than any other European country's economy. By 1970, it was 60% of the U.S., a very impressive growth rate. It was the world's leading producer of oil, coal and iron ore, and had numerous other natural resources. This gave Soviet leaders the ability to finance cooperative governments around the world, adding to the political threat to the U.S.

The Soviet political structure gave its leaders the maximum amount of control over their ability to remain in power and to direct the policy of the nation, including when to make war. This, in combination with the country's ideology, meant the Soviet leadership had both great potential for hostility to the United States and the ability to translate that hostility into action.

Soviet Military

In terms of military capabilities, the Soviets at the height of the Cold War had a population between 240 million to 270 million to draw on for its armed services. Both men and women were conscripted.

In 1984, the Soviet Army consisted of 94 active tank, motorized rifle and airborne divisions, and their Warsaw Pact Allies had 55 active divisions. A division consists of 10,000 to 20,000 soldiers, meaning the Soviet Army and its allies had 1.5 million to 3 million combat personnel. These forces had the potential to successfully invade Western Europe and defeat the combined conventional forces of NATO. In contrast, the Soviet Union's land mass of 22 million square kilometers - the largest country by area in the world - had made it virtually invulnerable to invasion throughout Russian history.

At that time, the Soviet Navy had four fleets with 186,000 sailors aboard ship, and an additional 281,000 stationed ashore. In the mid-1980s, it possessed over 250 different ship types, including a large attack submarine force which could inflict serious damage on shipping and U.S. aircraft carrier battle groups as well as nuclear missile submarines force capable of striking the United States mainland without warning.

Also:

During the Cold War, the Soviet Air Force was rearmed, strengthened and modern air doctrines were introduced. At its peak in the 1980s, it could deploy approximately 10,000 aircraft, and at the beginning of the 1990s the Soviet Union had an air force that in terms of quantity and quality fulfilled superpower standards.

For example, the Soviet MIG-25 Foxbat could outclimb and outrun Western fighters, and had better supersonic endurance. An Iraqi MIG-25 scored the only air-to-air kill of a U.S. aircraft in the first Gulf War.

Soviet Nuclear Arsenal

And of course, the Soviets had nuclear weapons. In 1986, they possessed 45,000 of them, 20,000 of which were tactical (battlefield) weapons, and 25,000 of which were intercontinental ballistic missiles. In terms of number of warheads, it was the larger than the American inventory.

Iranian Political and Economic Power

Now, let's talk about Iran.

Iran is the promoter of a minority brand of militant Shiite Islam, which is itself a minority in the world Islamic community. A significant percentage of young and educated Iranian citizens reject the strictures of this ideology, and some flaunt their violations of it despite repercussions. Because of its anti-modernist tendencies and sectarian nature, Iranian ideology has no purchase whatsoever outside of the Middle East region.

Iranian GDP is approximately $852 billion. The U.S.'s is $14 trillion, sixteen times larger.

Iran's governmental authority is dominated by hardline clerics, but internal power is split among competing factions, including divided executive power between the Supreme Leader, appointed for life unless deposed by an elected clerical committee, and an elected President. The legislative body does not rubber-stamp executive decisions, but wields real power, and consists of a majority of conservatives/Islamists, but also a large percentage of independents and reformers.

Iran's Military

Iran's military consists of about 545,000 personnel in the regular forces, and 125,000 in the Revolutionary Guards, which competes for scarce resources. The country's male military-age population that is fit for service is approximately 17 million. Women are exempt from military duty. Military expenditures are about $6 billion. U.S. military expenditures are around $568 billion and the military-age population that is fit for service is about 119 million. The U.S. has 1.4 million active duty personnel and 1.5 million reserves. Men and women serve in the U.S. armed forces.

Iran's military has only produced its own weapons since 1992, relying on aging foreign hardware before that. United States military equipment is the most technically advanced in the world.

Iran's regular army has a total of 350,000 personnel in ten military divisions, four armored and six infantry, as well as two commando brigades and one airborne brigade. In modern times, Iran has not successfully invaded another country. In the 1980s, it fought a bloody, expensive and inconclusive war with its neighbor, Iraq.

Iran's Air Force has 52,000 personnel and a total of 65 modern fighters in service, as well as 188 fighters  of older design. The United States Air Force has 329,000 personnel and 5,778 aircraft, of which 2,402 are fighters. In addition, the United States Navy has 3,700 aircraft.

Iran's Navy is, in a word, pathetic:

As of 2001 the regular Iranian navy was in a state of overall obsolescence, and in poor shape because they have not been equipped with modern ships and weapons. Iran's three destroyers are over 50 years old and are not operational. The readiness of the three 25-year-old frigates is almost non-existent, and the two 30-year-old corvettes do not have sophisticated weapons. Ten of 20 missile-equipped fast attack craft have limited operational readiness, and four of them are not seaworthy as of 2001. Only 10 Chinese-made Thodor-class craft are operationally reliable. The four 30-year-old minesweepers are obsolete, lack seaworthiness, and do not have a mine-sweeping capability. Iran has many amphibious and auxiliary ships, but these are superfluous to requirements and are used purely for training personnel. Iran's ten hovercraft are old and used sparingly.

Iran's navy has 20,000 men, but they are young and inexperienced, and most of them are riflemen and marines based on Persian Gulf islands. And at higher levels, there is fierce rivalry between the IRGC and regular navies for scarce resources. Due to these shortcomings, Iran's three Kilo-class submarines would be vulnerable, and they are limited to laying mines in undefended waters.

This is remarkable for a nation dependent on protecting its sea lanes for its economy and security.

Iran's Suspected Nuclear Weapons Program

Finally, Iran has no nuclear weapons, and no missile or aircraft which could deliver one to U.S. territory. Iran is suspected of having a nuclear weapons development program, but this is controversial.

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Clearly, not only is the magnitude of the threat to the United States from Iran not equal to that of the former Soviet Union, the two are not even remotely comparable. On no axis - politically, economically, or militarily - does Iran come close to having the ability to challenge the United States. Its fortunes have improved so much recently only because the United States did it the unintended favor of removing their principal adversary, Saddam Hussein. The only possible threat from Iran to the United States is a disruption of the oil supply caused by a regional conflict between Iran and our Sunni ally, Saudi Arabia, but such a war would have severe negative consequences for Iran's economy. The threat Iran poses to America's other principal ally in the region, Israel, consists entirely of hostile speeches by politicians.

If John McCain really believes that Iran threatens America as much as the Soviet Union did, then he is completely unfit to be President of the United States. I suspect he is simply lying, which is just about as bad.

Note: I have no expertise in economics or military studies.  The sources in this post are ones I gathered in half an hour of googling, and it is more than likely that I have some facts wrong, particularly in the numbers cited. Even if some of the details were to change, I believe the overall conclusion would not.

Comments

[zenpundit]

Iran presents essentially three threats to U.S. security, broadly understood.

1. Terrorism/Subversion of friendly regional states through proxies like Hezbollah, PIJ, HAMAS and certain Iraqi militias as well as direct covert actions by the Pasdaran.

The threat level here ranges from a nuisance to serious tactical problems involving sizable numbers of potential casualties.

2. Iran's nuclear program will inspire a destabilizing regional nuclear weapons proliferation from Turkey to the Sunni Arab states. This appears to already be unfolding.

3. The Iranian state could collapse, from internal revolution or from an external attack, creating a failed state arc from Lebanon to the Chinese border.

This is not anywhere near equivalent to the Soviet threat. Nor is it to be taken lightly.