Bob Casey to Endorse Obama; Obama Bus Tour Coming to Philly

NYTimes Caucus:

Senator Bob Casey Jr. of Pennsylvania, one of the state’s last undecided superdelegates, plans to endorse Barack Obama during a rally at the Soldiers and Sailors Military Museum and Memorial in Pittsburgh this morning.

After the announcement Senator Casey will join Senator Obama on his six-day bus trip across Pennsylvania, reports the Philadelphia Inquirer. Senator Casey’s support for Mr. Obama goes against the wave of support for Hillary Rodham Clinton among many of the state’s top Democrats, like Governor Ed Rendell, Rep. John P. Murtha and Mayor Michael Nutter of Philadelphia.

The endorsement also comes at a crucial time for Obama, who has been trailing Clinton in Pennsylvania polls by double-digit margins but who also has bought at least $1.6 million worth of television advertising statewide in the last week, more than double Clinton’s expenditure.

Obama strategists hope that Casey can help their candidate make inroads with the white working-class men who are often referred to as “Casey Democrats.” This group identifies with the brand of politics Casey and his late father, a former governor, practiced - liberal on economic issues but supportive of gun rights and opposed to abortion. (Obama favors some gun-control measures and backs abortion rights.)

This is moderately helpful for Obama, but I remain skeptical that endorsements do all that much for candidates this time around, even in terms of major-donor fundraising. I spoke to a guy last night who works for one of the bigger contributors out there, and he said people like him were questioning their relevance in an age when a candidate can raise $91 million from small donors online in just two months.

Katharine Q. Seelye of The New York Times says it’s “do or die” for Mrs. Clinton in Pennsylvania. And despite her early lead in the polls, Mr. Obama’s bus trip proves he’s not conceding the state.

A strong showing, if not a victory, would keep his accumulated lead in delegates and in the popular vote more or less intact. And it would puncture Mrs. Clinton’s argument to superdelegates that he is a flawed candidate who cannot compete in the big closely contested states.

“We win if we lose by only five points,” said an Obama backer who is not authorized to speak for the campaign. “The immediate goal is for us not to lose by 10 points. But if she loses by a point, she’s out.”

I think that's right. The latest poll has Hillary up 49 to 39. That leaves 12 percent undecided, so a lot can happen in the remaining 24 days. And because of the new registrations, I think it's likely that polls  understate Obama's support. I'm not predicting an Obama win; I'm saying I have no idea what will happen. What I am confident in saying is that turnout will break all records.

So I guess Obama will be in Philly on Wednesday, the last day of the 6-day bus tour. When John Kerry came to town in '04, there was an ocean of people on the Parkway, spilling out onto the numbered streets, watching on jumbo screens. I can't even conceive what this will be like.

Comments

[Matthew G. Saroff]

This endorsement was inevitable.

There has been bad blood between the Caseys and the Clintons since 1992, when Bill Casey refused to endorsed, and was denied a speech slot at the convention.