On February 9, there are 4 contests with a total of 205 delegates:
- Louisiana primary, 68 delegates.
- Nebraska caucus, 31 delegates.
- Washington caucus, 97 delegates.
- U.S. Virgin Islands primary, 9 delegates.
On February 10, Maine holds its caucus, assigning 9 delegates.
On February 12, there are 3 contests with a total of 239 delegates:
- Maryland primary, 99 delegates.
- Virginia primary, 103 delegates.
- District of Columbia primary, 37 delegates.
On February 19, Wisconsin, with 92 delegates, holds its primary and the Hawaii caucus allocates 29 delegates.
On March 4, there are four contests with a total of 445 delegates:
- Ohio primary, 162 delgates.
- Rhode Island primary, 32 delegates.
- Texas primary/caucus hybrid, 228 delegates.
- Vermont primary, 23 delegates.
On March 8, Wyoming's caucus assigns 18 delegates. And on March 11, Mississippi's primary assigns 36 delegates.
So between now and March 11, a total of 1,073 delegates will be awarded. For the sake of argument, let's say they split 537 Obama/536 Clinton. That would give Obama a total of 1,445 and Clinton 1,420.
Then there is a nearly 6-week gap before the Pennsylvania primary, with 181 delegates, the largest remaining state.
- How lucky are the February 9 states that they are the focus of attention for only two days?
- I have no idea whether thinking the race will remain even before it gets to Pennsylvania is realistic. I am already tired of polls.
- Six weeks is a long time for the circus to be in town. If I made money from radio or television ads, I would be salivating.
- I guess I am going to jump in as a volunteer for Obama's GOTV effort.
Update: Dan McQuaide at Philadelphia Weekly:
Politically-interested area twenty-somethings, however, will be even more unbearable for the duration of the primary season.
I have to say, Obama attracts the most annoying supporters. Snotty punks who largely whine about Hillary more than they talk up their guy. I was about ready to punch this one asshole at DL last night. I am supporting Obama, though, because I think he's got a better shot to beat McCain than Hillary does.