Missing the Point About Pakistan

Zenpundit's right:

Much like Poland under Jaruzelski or the recent crackdown in Burma, martial law in Pakistan was not a transition from one kind of state to another but rather a shift from the hypocrisy of a velvet glove to the honesty of an iron fist. Pakistan is no more a dictatorship today than it was a month earlier.

I have not understood the reaction to Musharraf's swinging the hammer, since it was so clearly in his hand for so long. He will do what he thinks he needs to do to maintain power. Any other way ends in a noose or exile for him and his cronies.

Pakistan's central problem is a crisis of legitimacy. Nationalism is a waning force these days and even anti-Indian feeling is sustained by a marriage of nationalism with Islamist radicalism. Once, a Pakistani leader could declare that Pakistani's " would eat grass" to make their country the nuclear equal of Hindu India. No more. Musharraf's fear of "national suicide" did not rouse his countrymen to his side and there are some, even in the army, who would hold up jihad above the nation. Well above.

Yep, but Pakistan is not a closed system. It's the actions of the United States in the region that is driving the radicalization of those who now support jihad. And no, this is not "blame America first." It's an attempt to be clear-eyed about what is dumping energy into this reaction.

Note also that this is not necessarily an argument for withdrawal from Iraq. Once you've driven the ship onto the rocks and knocked a hole in the bottom, throwing it into reverse may be the quickest way to sink. Simply reversing the controls in Iraq deprives the vicious spiral we're in now of energy, but it doesn't preclude a new vicious spiral from forming as parties like Saudi Arabia and Iran, who are now circling U.S. forces, are freed up to go at it via their proxy armies.

Bush has well and truly driven us onto the rocks, and how we repair that damage is not clear. It is absolutely necessary for the United States to reverse the impression that it is in a cataclysmic struggle with Islam, that we intend to rule Iraq via puppets and military bases, and plan to subvert other Islamic states. Unfortunately, our credibility is at zero and falling. Musharraf's actions are not just a reaction to the situation in Pakistan, they are also a signal to some factions how to proceed in Iraq.

Comments

[upyernoz]

Pakistan is no more a dictatorship today than it was a month earlier

i disagree. a dictatorship is not an all or nothing thing. it's true that last month pakistan was not a democracy in any normal sense of the word, but it was more democratic than it is now. it had an independent judiciary that has ruled against musharraf and his government. and when mushy tried to fire the chief justice last summer, the decision was reversed by the judiciary itself.

that's why the first thing that musharraf did after declaring the state of emergency was send his forces to surround the supreme court and arrest the justices that had challenged him before. indeed, what precipitated the coup was the expectation that the supreme court was about to rule against him and issue a decision barring musharraf from running in the upcoming election. musharraf viewed such a ruling to be a threat and so he acted to make sure the ruling never happened.

but that just goes to show that the ruling would have made a difference. pakistan was hardly perfect but there was some rule of law there before this week. now there isn't. which is why it is more of a dictatorship now than it was before.